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09/08/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Padres were in serious danger of falling out of first place in the National League's West Division, but a couple of games against the fading Los Angeles Dodgers seems to have gotten the surprising squad back on track. The division leaders will try for a three-game sweep of this late-season set when the two rivals square off again this evening at Petco Park.
San Diego had seen its once-commanding lead atop the NL West shrink to only one game after losing 10 straight contests heading into this series, but has been able to rebound somewhat by earning a pair of wins over the Dodgers this week. The Padres remained just one game up on hard-charging San Francisco, though, after the Giants defeated Arizona on Tuesday.
Following tonight's tilt, the Padres will host San Francisco in a critical four-game series beginning on Thursday.
San Diego prevailed last night behind another outstanding effort from Mat Latos, with the young hurler firing seven outstanding innings to lead the way in a 2-1 decision.
Latos (14-5) yielded just one run and four hits in addition to racking up 10 strikeouts and setting a new Major League record in the process. The 22-year- old became the first pitcher in history to allow two runs or less while lasting at least five innings in 15 consecutive starts.
"I didn't know about [the record]," said Latos afterward. "It's great to be able to set a record, but my career's not going to be defined as setting one record. My career's going to be defined on my reliability."
Aaron Cunningham and Adrian Gonzalez each knocked in runs to give Latos all the support he would need, while All-Star closer Heath Bell finished off the victory by recording the game's final five outs for his 39th save of the year.
Latos outdueled Dodgers youngster Clayton Kershaw (11-10), who permitted just two runs on five hits and struck out six over seven innings in a tough-luck result.
Los Angeles mustered just five hits in suffering its fourth straight loss and eighth setback in its last 10 games. The two-time defending NL West champions are now one game under .500 (69-70) for the season and 10 behind the Padres in the standings.
"I don't know how many clubs look good losing," said Dodgers manager Joe Torre. "It's been the same situation -- we've had trouble through the middle of our batting order putting anything together offensively."
The Dodgers will be trying to prevent matching their longest losing skid of the season and hope to break out against untested Padres pitcher Cory Luebke. The rookie makes his second major league start this evening since being called up from Triple-A Portland when rosters expanded in September.
Luebke was hurt by the long ball in his big league debut, serving up a pair of two-run homers in five innings of work in a 4-3 loss to Colorado on Friday. The left-hander gave up five hits in all and walked two while striking out three.
The 25-year-old, a supplemental first-round selection by San Diego in the 2007 draft, went a combined 10-1 with a 2.68 earned run average in 19 games (17 starts) between Portland and Double-A San Antonio prior to his promotion.
Luebke will be opposed tonight by Chad Billingsley, a pitcher who's enjoyed plenty of success when facing the Padres in the past. The Dodgers' right- hander owns a 10-5 record along with an excellent 2.48 ERA over 21 career meetings (17 starts) with San Diego and has flourished at Petco Park, where he's gone 5-2 with a 2.20 ERA in 13 career visits (nine starts).
Billingsley threw six shutout innings to defeat the Padres in San Diego on July 27, but did take a loss against the Friars in Los Angeles on August 5 after surrendering three runs in another six-inning stint. He's 2-1 with a splendid 1.40 ERA in three encounters with San Diego this season, with both victories taking place at Petco Park.
The 26-year-old is coming off an outstanding effort in his most recent start as well, limiting San Francisco to two unearned runs and just two hits while fanning seven over eight sharp innings on Friday. The performance improved Billingsley to 11-8 with a 3.54 ERA in 26 mound trips this season.
These two NL West foes have split 14 meetings so far this season, as well as eight bouts held in San Diego in 2010.
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Tigers battle Bulldogs in SEC action >>
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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