Hamels, Ruiz help Phils nip Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

09/03/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carlos Ruiz drove in the lone run of the game and Cole Hamels pitched seven strong innings, as the Philadelphia Phillies snuck past the Milwaukee Brewers, 1-0, in the opener of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park.

Hamels (9-10) gave up just three hits to go with seven strikeouts and three walks to pick up his second straight win. Ryan Madson recorded his fifth save of the year.

The victory moved the Phillies, who have won four in a row and seven of eight, within one game of the NL East-leading Braves, who lost to the Marlins on Friday.

Chris Capuano (2-3) was solid in five frames, allowing one run on four hits to suffer the hard-luck loss. He also fanned four batters and walked two for Milwaukee, which has lost four straight.

After stranding runners on first and second in the first, Philadelphia scored a run in the second. Shane Victorino led off the frame with a fly ball to left-center field and the ball dropped between Lorenzo Cain and Ryan Braun for a double. Victorino moved to third on a Raul Ibanez groundout and crossed the plate on Ruiz's grounder to short.

The Phillies had a great chance to add to their lead in the fourth. A pair of singles and a walk loaded the bases with nobody out. However, Ibanez struck out and Ruiz lined into a double play to keep it a 1-0 game.

Milwaukee didn't record a hit off Hamels until the fifth. Casey McGehee hit a single up the middle with one out. Hamels, though, got Cain to ground into a double play.

The Brewers put men on first and second with two outs in the sixth, but Corey Hart grounded into a fielder's choice to end the inning.

Milwaukee continued to strand runners on base in the seventh. Braun walked and Prince Fielder singled to put men on first and second with nobody out. Hamels retired the next three batters to keep the Phillies in front.

Jose Contreras tossed a perfect eighth and Madson retired the side in order in the ninth to seal the victory for Philadelphia.

Game Notes

Philadelphia swept a three-game set in Milwaukee back in May...The Phillies started a seven-game homestand on Friday...Philadelphia reinstated outfielder/first baseman Ross Gload from the 15-day disabled list and selected the contract of utilityman Greg Dobbs from Triple-A Lehigh Valley...Hamels improved to 5-5 over 15 home starts this season. He is 4-2 lifetime against the Brewers...Capuano fell to 0-2 in his career against the Phillies.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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