Rays try again to snap slide against Red Sox

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays try to avoid their fourth straight loss this evening when they continue a three-game series against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.

The Red Sox kept their fleeting postseason hopes alive in the opener of this set on Monday, as rookie Ryan Kalish belted his second grand slam and David Ortiz also went deep, propelling Boston to a 12-5 win.

With this being the final series for Boston against the Rays, it's imperative that the Red Sox sweep to continue hopes for a postseason spot. Monday's win moved Boston within 6 1/2 games of the Rays for the wild card lead. Chicago is six back.

Jon Lester (16-8) struck out exactly 10 batters for a third straight game, all victories. The lefty limited the Rays to four hits and two runs over six innings.

Ortiz and Adrian Beltre hit back-to-back homers in the first inning for Boston, which was swept at home by the White Sox in a three-game series over the weekend. Victor Martinez added a two-run single in the second.

"I think after the first I got in a little bit better rhythm," Lester said. "Vick did a good job kind of controlling that. It makes pitching easier when guys go out and score runs like we did tonight."

The Rays remained 2 1/2 games behind the first- place New York Yankees in the AL East.

Jeff Niemann (10-6) was pounded for a third straight start. This time the right-hander surrendered four hits and six runs over 1 2/3 frames. He's given up 19 hits and 23 runs over his last three outings for an ERA of 20.70 in that span.

"Command was off, big time," Niemann said. "I went into a lot of bad counts and they were sitting on some pitches."

Hoping to turn things around tonight for Tampa will be left-hander David Price, who is 16-6 with a 2.92 earned run average. Price won for the first time in four starts on Wednesday against Toronto, as he held the Jays to a run and four hits in eight innings. He also struck out seven in the win.

Price lost to the Red Sox the last time he faced them and is 2-2 in four starts against Boston with a 3.81 ERA.

Boston will counter with Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka, who is 9-4 on the year with a 4.29 ERA. MAtsuzaka beat the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday, as he allowed four runs and six hits in 5 2/3 innings.

Matsuzaka has faced the Rays 11 times and is 2-5 against them with a 4.34 ERA.

Tampa is 10-6 against the Red Sox this season.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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