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09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Every year following the running of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile the winner of the race is automatically declared the early favorite for the next year's Kentucky Derby. Street Sense is the only thoroughbred to win both races.
I bring this up because it has been announced that 2008 Juvenile winner and two-year-old champion male Midshipman has been retired from competition. Who knew he was still in training?
Midshipman never made it to the Run for the Roses in 2009. That race is best known as being won by 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird who was last to Midshipman in the 2008 Juvenile.
"Midshipman defeated the best of his generation," Oliver Tait, Darley Stable's Chief Operating Officer, said, "while proving himself on both dirt and synthetic surfaces. We couldn't be more excited to have a champion two-year- old with his kind of looks and pedigree joining our roster in 2011."
As a two-year-old Midshipman won three of four starts, with a second, for $1,380,200. Along with the Juvenile he won the Del Mar Futurity in 2008 and was second to Street Hero in the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita.
Midshipman's biggest race in 2009 was the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita. He was beaten less than a length to finish third to Furthest Land.
The colt finishes his racing career with five wins in eight starts for more than $1.5 million.
The downfall for Midshipman might have been his time in Dubai after his Juvenile victory. He didn't have a start during his time overseas and never recaptured whatever magic he may have had.
This year as a four-year-old the colt won his lone start, an allowance race in Dubai.
Horses come and go. Some capture the imagination like Secretariat or more recently Smarty Jones. Others are merely good horses who either don't develop or aren't allowed to progress.
Smarty Jones was honored on Labor Day at Parx Racing, formerly Philadelphia Park. The track has a new stakes race named for the 2004 Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner and a statue of him was unveiled.
Parx Racing honored Smarty Jones because he is the only Kentucky Derby winner who was ever based at the suburban Philadelphia track. His owners and trainer brought him back home before the 2004 Belmont Stakes. Even though that race didn't end with the Pennsylvania-bred sweeping the Triple Crown, he became an instant legend around Philadelphia.
Midshipman has been retired. Best of luck in his new career. Who knew he was still in training?
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(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
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